In 2021, the global trade volume growth is estimated at 9.3 percent, about 1.6 times faster than GDP growth (5.9%). Trade growth rate is expected to fall by 3.3 percentage point in 2022, reaching 4.9 percent in 2023.
While, the growth forecast for global output is projected to decrease slightly by 1.5 percentage point in 2022 and then slow to 3.8 percent in 2023.
In 2021, inflation is estimated to rise by 2.4 percentage point in advanced economies and 0.6 percentage point is emerging and developing markets. It then is expected to remain elevated in 2022, averaging 3.9 percent in advanced economies and 5.9 percent in emerging market and developing economies, before subsiding in 2023. Assuming inflation expectations remain well-anchored and the pandemic eventually eases its grip, higher inflation should fade as supply chain woes ease, central banks raise interest rates, and demand tilts more toward services again, according to IMF report.
It is estimated that oil price rapidly increases to 69 dollars in 2021. Having a moderate rise in 2022 (about 12 percent), It then is expected to decrease gradually approximately -7.8 percent in 2023 as supply-demand imbalances will recede further.
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کلیدواژه: #2022 #economic outlook # International Monetary Fund